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May 28, 2004
Can France Survive The French?

France is ready and eager to reform the world. Of course, reforming the world is child's play compared to reforming France.

The Euro-folk in Brussels consider French finances in "Etat d'alerte":

Since December 31, 2003, France has failed to meet the two criteria of Maastricht [Treaty, vid. Protocol On The Excessive Deficit Procedurel ("EDP"), The High Contracting Parties; Art. 1] fixing the deficit ceiling at 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) [scil., du produit intérieur brut (PIB)] and public debt to 60%: the former is now 4.1% and the latter 63%.

France solved her non-compliance problems by teaming up with non-compliant Germany, and together they bullied the Council of Economics and Finance Ministers of the EU ("ECOFIN") to suspend EDP enforcement in their exceptional cases. Rules are for Euro-chumps not Euro-champs.

But France can't bully the underlying arithmetic. While her unemployment rate stubbornly hovers around 10%, May consumer confidence fell to minus-23 from minus-20 last month.

Within the confidence survey, the index measuring the expected outlook for unemployment surged to 60 in May from 39 the month before.

Alas, French consumer spending had been the engine of this year's air-blown recovery.

But much-needed reform is hostage to political jellyfish and petrified unions:

Flights throughout France were grounded yesterday as air traffic controllers joined schoolteachers and public transport workers in strikes to protest against government reforms. [French energy workers also struck.]

The main railway unions also announced that they will strike for 24 hours starting next Monday night, bringing yet more misery to the country's travellers.

A terrible May for the government is now promising to drag on into June as the unions' resolve strengthens. The government is trying to force through reforms to the state pensions scheme, obliging people to work more years and pay more to qualify for full pensions.

It also wants to reduce the number of teachers' assistants and school monitors and change the entire system of school funding under a general decentralisation scheme.

But the unions are having none of it. They accuse the government of destroying France's social model and of trying to deprive workers of hard earned rights. If the reform is approved, they plan further immediate strikes and have called for next week's strike to roll on, affecting all public transport workers and lorry drivers, until the government caves in.

The French electorate certainly has not embraced reform. After his party took a drubbing in the March elections, Jack left Jean-Pierre Raffarin as PM and future bouc émissaire (M. Raffarin's commission is only 100 days) to continue crucial but unpopular reforms. M. Raffarin may bravely soldier on, but he knows what every schoolboy knows -- reform can't come fast enough. Especially when a gain is followed by 600,000 setbacks:

In a blow to efforts to curb France's welfare state, the center-right government could be forced to restore $1.4 billion in unemployment benefits to an estimated 600,000 people whose payments were to be curtailed under recent labor reforms. ...with the unemployment insurance fund running a $5 billion deficit, the government could be forced to bow to leftist unions' demands to cover the added expense by raising employer-paid payroll taxes.

Moody's Sovereign Risk Unit concluded back in 2K that most if not all industrialized nations will "default" on their pension promises:

[I]t is impossible for almost every major developed nation to meet presently promised public sector pensions, including promised health care for seniors, without further changes in future benefits. In others words, future governments will probably renege on future pension and senior health care commitments as embedded in law today.

France is hitching her socialist paradise to the EU star, hoping to continue gaming the EU for the shortfall. But the EU is bankrolled by Germany, a Germany that can no longer afford to be its sugardaddy:

[Oxford historian Niall Ferguson] pointed out that Germany has paid $132 billion and then some to France, Belgium, Italy and co in net EU contributions. And, as predicted, bankruptcy looms. From Belgian steel to Italian agriculture to French colonial subventions, the entire European project has been financed by Germany.

The Germans get 11 per cent of the votes in the Council of Ministers and pony up 67 per cent of the EU's net contributions. And sooner or later, they'll figure out that pandering to a pampered populace at home is one thing, subsidising it Continent-wide is quite another.

Well, we'll leave it to our French correspondents to smooth down all the bad news.

posted by Damian at 08:25 PM
Comments

What News ?
On what planet do you live Damian ?
The situation you describe exist for ages in France. And we are still there..
Nothing "new" in you post. Next.

Posted by: Marc Levis on May 29, 2004 05:24 PM

Damian,

Have you checked your clock lately?

Posted by: zoomerx on May 29, 2004 05:33 PM

I'm actually looking forward to see the European Court of Justice (who doesn't render Justice Supreme Court-style but rather with relation to treaties) stick the Stability Pact back into Chirac's ass.

What does "scil." mean?

Posted by: Dr.Evil on May 30, 2004 03:53 AM

Scil. - abbreviation for scilicet, shortened form of scire licet (“It is permitted to know / that is to say / namely”)

Posted by: Doug on May 31, 2004 05:25 PM


Please i need a suicidebomber to finish with ministers like this right now!!!!

Our current defense minister received the maximum militar honour medal (wich in
spain, I mean Surrendertan, is not much) from himself,
>a honour that recognise his values and merits during the only one month of
socialist goverment.
>
>As you know the only one decision he took during this 30 days is to withdraw
from Irak.
>And this medal can only be received by soldiers who fighted in battle.
>So he's illegaly giving himself a medal for a coward and miserable withdraw!!!!
>
>The army, obviously is not very happy withit. Imagine your son dies in
>Irak, fighting for democracy and against terrorism and this idiot
>arrives to power and the first thing he does is to withdraw saying
>that all these lifes lost in battle where anything else than a waste of
>time and he puts himself a medal for that...
>
>If the situation wouldn't be so serious it could be even funny. But
>it's not funny, it' not fckg funny.

Posted by: Victor Bueno on June 1, 2004 10:55 AM

"Oxford historian Niall Ferguson pointed out that Germany has paid $132 billion and then some to France, Belgium, Italy and co in net EU contributions."

Germany invaded twice France(and Belgium) in the last 2 wars, killed 2 millions frenchmen, 1.500.000 soldiers and 500.000 civilians. 830 000 buildings where destroyed in WWII alone, leaving over 1 million homeless...
So it’s quite normal if Germany has paid for the continent it destroyed twice some decades ago

Posted by: Fred on June 1, 2004 04:55 PM

M. Levis,

Let's see, your point is that French mismanagement is eternal, therefore France too will be eternal. Did I get that right? Nothing like setting the bar of French greatness below ground level.

As for nothing new, the post is chock-a-block with new information. It is its baleful tenor that remains the same and leaves you with nothing interesting to say.

I comfortably make my home on planet Earth. Though others question if you are jetsam from the mothership (e.g., Comment #8).

M. Zoomerx,

Thank you for the link. I wept. Not for the size of the National Debt, after all America is the world’s largest economy, the world’s largest economic aid donor, it suffered a direct blow to its financial markets 2+ years ago (one tracking number for NYC was as high as $750B), it has prosecuted two major land wars over the same period (Afghanistan and Iraq), and, not unremarked in France, America remains in a state of war.

No, I weep because so much of the spending behind the National Debt is for French-like nanny-state socialism. Governments only do two things well: wage war and collect taxes. Everything else is of the quality of government cheese, serviceable but barely cheese.

Dr. Evil,

I understand that Jack has a sphincter pulled tighter than Dom de Villepin’s girdle. Although Jack is noted for his politically explosive and massive easements, good luck getting anything back in there.

Regards,
DGB

Posted by: Damian Bennett on June 1, 2004 05:51 PM

No, I weep because so much of the spending behind the National Debt is for French-like nanny-state socialism.

Could you elaborate, Damian?

the world’s largest economic aid donor

Proportionally, it's not (see graph). There was an article in The Economist recently that puts France relatively equal to the US in foreign aid, Japan being the worst donor.

Posted by: zoomerx on June 1, 2004 08:26 PM

However, even though the charts above do show U.S. aid to be poor (in percentage terms) compared to the rest, the generosity of the people of America is far more impressive than their government
Nonetheless, it is interesting to note for example, per latest estimates, Americans privately give at least $34 billion overseas -- more than three times U.S. official foreign aid of $10 billion:

These interesting points in zoomers link. It appears to make the US figures look a little better. Didn’t read anything about French citizens “privately” giving, but I’m sure you guys will supply a link showing that you do too.

I’ll also take issue with the line “generosity” of the people being more impressive than their government. Where does the author think the government got the money from in the first place? My guess is tax dollars, which are supplied by the people.

Posted by: andy on June 1, 2004 11:20 PM

These $34 billion -as any figure that could be put ahead for France- are mainly money sent by immigrants to their families abroad, aren't they? Good they succeed in the US. There are some in France, too. Less, of course, than in the US.

The thing with the US official foreign aid is that it mainly benefits to Mexico and Israel. I don't have a problem with that. But official foreign aid is generally seen as destinated to Third World countries.

Posted by: goldsoundz on June 2, 2004 03:42 AM

CORRECTION: I think it's Egypt, not Mexico. If someone can confirm or say if I'm wrong?

Posted by: goldsoundz on June 2, 2004 03:50 AM

Good point, goldsoundz. Mexico and Cuba are two examples of countries receiving large sums of money from relatives and organisations abroad (from the US).

Posted by: zoomerx on June 2, 2004 04:19 AM

btw, international public aid was not the point of Damian's post.

well, Damian, what could we say? I hope that some reforms will succeed, that the status of EDF (Electricite de France) will be changed, that our obligations towards the EU will be respected -including our commitments to open the last state monopoles to private companies.

I hope that the reform of the Sécurité Sociale will deal with out tremendous abuse of drugs.

Posted by: goldsoundz on June 2, 2004 05:06 AM

Zoomerx, did you read the article you posted, or did you just find a little bit you thought was to your advantage?

The $34 billion is NOT money sent to relatives. It is from private charities.

goldsoundz, sorry you do not approve of the countires that receive aid from the US.

Perhaps France could send us a list of "approved" countries for us to send money to.

Posted by: andy on June 2, 2004 06:13 AM

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/6/1/103203.shtml

Posted by: Beo on June 2, 2004 09:40 AM

beo@troll.com

Posted by: Max on June 2, 2004 11:15 AM

andy,

I'm not really arguing here, just pointing out that the US, generous as it is, is not the only nation that cares for the thirld world (as The Economist pointed out recently, France gives just as much per capita). Since this site is about how evil and corrupted the French are, I hope to make some occasional corrections...

Regards.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/6/1/103203.shtml

What do you expect, Newsmax is a mouthpiece for the radical far-right in America, isn't it?

Posted by: zoomerx on June 2, 2004 01:35 PM

Zoomer

You sound touchy. Have you been getting enough sleep ?

Posted by: Papertiger on June 2, 2004 04:19 PM

Mr. Fred,

If you follow the link this is the very point historian Ferguson makes. To think Germany will continue beyond its due is reckless wishing. The German national psyche is not boundlessly contrite. It will soon enough be whining then badgering then demanding Europe pony up some "quo" for German "quid".

M. Max,

You imagine yourself a clever insult monger. You are not. You skate on the hem of the periphery of the outermost precincts of irrelevancy, which brings the axe. If you want to vent your pique say it in a way that displays intelligence or wit or, preferrably, both.

M. Zoomerx,

I dare not get started. Here's a small thing, the government's huge investments in nanny smoking bans. Here's a big thing, Social Security. A Ponzi scheme that lacks sufficient Ponzis and then is dressed up as entitlements can only distort -- then destroy -- honest labor.

M. Goldsoundz,

I wrote to thank you for your links and info here, but your e-mail address was kicked. So, my belated thanks here.

Regards all,
DGB

Posted by: Damian Bennett on June 2, 2004 06:38 PM

email address corrected. this one should work properly.

Concerning french bureaucracy: i'll try to find a link to some explanation of the most important reform currently being implemented in France, and widely ignored by the medias- and even more by the public opinion. It's the LOLF (Loi organique sur les lois de finances) which will introduce the principles of the New Public Management in the french administrations.
here is a explanation in French.

Posted by: goldsoundz on June 3, 2004 07:08 AM

Victor, I'm mortified; my heart goes out to the soldiers of Spain to whom that medal actually means something.

So it’s quite normal if Germany has paid for the continent it destroyed twice some decades ago

Why should it be repaid only to Europe? Lives and resources from all over the world went into the opposition.

radical far-right

...is like saying "bright flash of darkenss". Radical, in English, is the extreme left position - I think you're looking for "reactionary".

For the aid ruckus; no charity exists at gunpoint. Generosity, by definition, cannot be coerced. Money given by governments without referendum is hardly a measure of altruism.

Posted by: Doug on June 3, 2004 10:14 PM
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