We post regularly on France's beaten economy and her backdoor-to-greatness project, the EU. These posts usually produce a tremendous yawn amongst the Pave community. Well, for those who prefer broad-stroked apocalyse to the slow death of quarterly reports and sundry metrics, there is this (Hat tip: E-Nough!):

CIA GIVES GRIM WARNING ON EUROPEAN PROSPECTS

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

Hhmmm, yes, disintegration might pose some problems to those unified heft ambitions. Read the report here.

That got our atttention. But apparently the Euros breezed right over this. They've much more important things to do, like mapping out remedial tasks for America in Europa's transatlantic project (Again, hat tip: E-Nough!):

B6‑0021/2005: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION ON TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

The European Parliament,...reaffirming its commitment to the democratic values which are the foundation of both the transatlantic community and solidarity: freedom, democracy, the rule of law and human rights...whereas by acting together Europe and the United States could develop solutions to global challenges such as the environment, natural and human disasters, poverty, migration, development, terrorism, international crime, and social and ethnic conflicts...

Please note the priorities. They are enumerated in the order of Europa hobbyhorses. No time to deal with terrorists till the environment, poverty, migration, development, et al. are tidied up. Too bad about getting all blown up. Pull yourself together for the fatmucket! for the ozone!

Then there are the EU heavy-hearted regrets:

...whereas the long-lasting situation in Guantanamo Bay is hindering EU-US transatlantic relations, since the EU cannot accept legal and judicial irregularities which undermine the most fundamental values of the rule of law,...deeply concerned at the continued existence of the death penalty in many US states,...having regard to the persistence of many trade disputes between the EU and the US...

As for the first complaint, we here in the United States cannot accept this undermining of the most fundamental values of the rule of law, as for the second we are deeply concerned about this and this, oh, and this, as for the third we have regard to this.

Then there are the mighty EU calls to action!:

[The European Parliament c]alls for a comprehensive dialogue between the transatlantic partners on Iran, including the country's nuclear ambitions and the best ways of countering them, the dismal human rights situation in Iran, and the lack of democratic governance...calls again on the transatlantic partners actively to support and strengthen the international institutions and to reaffirm the value of international law, avoiding unilateral approaches and reverting to multilateralism and the UN framework in order to develop global governance, and also to work together to define a common agenda for reform, particularly of the UN and the Bretton Woods institutions, in order to strengthen their effectiveness, credibility and democratic legitimacy...

As to the first call, this, as for the second, this, this, this, this, this, and on and on.

Oh, yes, we're very keen for more European guidance and UN global governance.

The CIA predict doom for Europe ??

Let's remember how accurate the agency was on the 25,000 liters of anthrax, 38,000 liters of botulinum toxin, 500 tons of sarin, mustard and VX nerve agent, 30,000 chemical munitions, the several mobile biological weapons labs, the advanced nuclear weapons development program Saddam supposedly possessed...

Who trusts the CIA now ?

And why is the CIA wasting its resources on such reports while Ossama Ben laden is enjoying his 1229th day of freedom following the murder of 3000 American citizens ?

Ms. Murielle,

The CIA report is only a pretext to restate the obvious: The EU is one faa-caa-caa place.

You are correct that the CIA will have to do better than writing up a report with information most people can research on the Internet and offering a conclusion that Pave arrived at almost two years ago.

Regards,
DGB

Actually, I just finished reading the entire CIA report (the public part, which seems to be all of it). It's really just a summary of conclusions from a series of workshops, plus a few other co-ordinating efforts. It's not really from the CIA.

Also, the original Scotsman article saying it predicted the breakup of the EU is highly misleading. The report actually predicts the EU will be forced to integrate further and form a more unified foreign policy. The quoted section on the breakup is from a sidebar, and is the only place it it appears in the 120pg report.

Basically, that part is saying not that they will break up, but that they will have to reform their labor and immigration laws, or else they will break up. The expected path is reform, not breakup.

It's not really from the CIA.

Oh good. I almost gave myself a hernia laughing.

While your having that laugh Zoomer consider the following.

1) Persistent 10% unemployment in France and Germany (the engine of the European economy) during a period of global economic expansion.

2) A rapidly ageing European population due to sub-replacement birth rates.

3) A large and growing number of unassimilated newcommers from the Muslim world resident in the heart of Europe but opposed to its values.

4) A failure of Europe to grasp that the 21st century will be the "Pacific Century" lead by an alliance of the US, Japan, Australia, and India. Notice that none of these countries are infected by either welfare state socialism or anti-Americanism.

In the end it really matters not whether the EU survives or splinters as relates to the global situation. Europe lacks the economic and demograpic vitality to pose a challenge to the US let alone the military capability to project power into the Pacific.

My own view is that once NATO dissolves and the US pulls back from Europe it is likely that the UK and Eastern Europe will follow. I could be wrong and it wouldn't be the first time. It certainly doesn't seem to be anything to laugh about for Europeans though.

Good post, but #3 is wrong. Or at least explain what you consider to be a "large number of inassimilates".

It is my understanding that Europe has a large number of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africia who have brought their culture with them and isolated themselves from their host culture. They have not adopted European values or been absorbed into the mainstream of European life. They are unassimmilated. I am thinking of areas like those surrounding Paris.

This is an obvious source of conflict for a society. As the demograghics play out and the percentage of native Europeans declines conflict is assuured. A society that welcomes large numbers of outsiders but fails to insist they abide by the values of their new home will fall from within.

I am curious about what is driving the low birthrate among Europeans. My personal exposure has only been to the Swiss and English. For both it was mainly an economic issue. The cost of raising a child was prohibitative. Is that the case in other countries or is there another factor at work?