Updates to recent posts:

Jack Goes Nuclear, Europa Frets, Iran Jeers (January 25, 2006):

FRANCE SECRETLY UPGRADES CAPACITY OF NUCLEAR ARSENAL

PARIS February 10, 2006 (Guardian) - A military source quoted yesterday by the Libération newspaper claimed France had tinkered with its nuclear weapons to improve their strike capability and make this threat more credible.

Libération speculates that while potential targets are "secret", it is clear they include the Middle East or Asia, and that its military contacts suggest the changes are aimed at adding "flexibility" to France's nuclear deterrent.

"These evolutions are aimed at better taking into account the psychology of the enemy," defence minister Michèle Alliot-Marie* said after President Chirac's warning in January. In a speech to MPs, she added: "A potential enemy may think that France, given its principles, might hesitate to use the entire force of its nuclear arsenal against civilian populations. Our country has modified its capacity for action and from now on has the possibility to target the control centres of an eventual enemy."

L'Homme Qui Rétrécit (February 15, 2006):

IRAN REFUTES FRENCH NUCLEAR FINGER-POINTING

PARIS February 16, 2006 (AFP) - Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told French radio that the nuclear activities being undertaken by Iran could not be explained away as part of a drive for civilian energy supplies. ... "It's very simple: no civilian nuclear programme can explain Iran's nuclear programme," Douste-Blazy told France 2 television, two days after Tehran said it was resuming sensitive uranium enrichment work. "Therefore it's a clandestine military nuclear programme."

Ah, perhaps M. le Ministre he has only now read our earlier post.

Douste-Blazy said the international community had been united and firm in demanding security guarantees from Iran that its programme is peaceful.

"Firstly, the international community has sent a very strong message to the Iranians: show reason, suspend all nuclear activities and uranium enrichment," Douste-Blazy said, adding: "And they're not listening to us. That is the reason why, for the first time for days, the international community is united. It's not just the Europeans — France, Germany and the British — it's also Russia and China."

Did anyone notice who M. le Ministre omitted from his big "international community"?

Will M. le Ministre draw the correct inference from his international community's "strong message" and the inattention of the Iranians? We suggest that an extenuated possibility of a threat to threaten further talks prefatory to reporting to a committee for consideration of a recommendation to advance notice to some other committee who will consider the possibility of a threat to take actions upon approval by an as yet unconstituted committee is, well, pretty weak tea. We have posted here, here, and here on the glee with which the Iranians are gaming M. Douste-Blazy and his headless international community.

Nobel laureate and IAEA police poodle, Mohamed ElBaradei, speaking for the international community, toughened the tough talk.

WEST MAY HAVE TO LIVE WITH LOW-LEVEL IRANIAN ATOM WORK

VIENNA February 19, 2006 (Reuters) - The crisis over Iran's atomic agenda is deepening, but the world's nuclear watchdog chief has warned there may be no choice but to accept limited uranium enrichment by Tehran, diplomats say.

Countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have called for the Iranian controversy to be referred to the U.N. Security Council by March 6.

Iran hit back by breaking a moratorium on enrichment, the process of making fuel for atomic plants or, potentially, bombs.

The board vote has driven Iran into a corner under a banner of national pride and risks paralyzing the Council given that veto-holding Russia and China reject sanctions on Tehran mooted by Washington, IAEA veterans say.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei will make no recommendations in a broad report on three years of probes in Iran he is to give to board members on February 27, a week before they convene to weigh whether to urge a course of action by the Security Council.

But he has already suggested in diplomatic circles that a compromise may lie in accepting small-scale enrichment in Iran in exchange for guarantees of no full nuclear fuel production that could enable diversions into bomb-making, diplomats say.

Mr. ElBaradei's unmistakably "strong message" is sure to give the temerarious Iranians pause.

But U.S. and EU leaders, citing Tehran's past record of hiding nuclear work from the IAEA, object that to give Iran any leeway to ramp up UF6 production will hand it the know-how to "break out" with a nuclear arsenal whenever it so chooses. Then it will be too late to prevent Iran endangering world peace, they say, pointing to the Islamic Republic's calls for Israel's destruction and alleged support for Muslim militants.

"ElBaradei's suggestion seems naive ... If the Iranians get the compromise he's raised, they're likely to demand more concessions, especially operating more centrifuges," said David Albright, a former IAEA inspector in Iraq and director of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

IRAN TURNS ITS BACK ON EU-3 FOR NUCLEAR TALKS

TEHRAN February 21, 2006 (AFP) - Iran on Tuesday announced it would no longer hold nuclear talks with the EU-3 of Britain, France and Germany, saying it attached greater weight to negotiations with Moscow on a Russian compromise plan.

"Our contacts with the European Union will no longer be held with the EU-3, but in a unilateral manner with the different countries of the European Union," Mottaki told reporters following talks on Monday with EU officials in Brussels.

"At the current time the European Union has said it is ready to accept an eventual agreement between Iran and Russia," he said. "This means that if there is a need to have official discussions with the European Union it will be to complete the Russian proposal."

However Mottaki made clear that there was no chance of Iran going back on its resumption of small-scale uranium enrichment at home for research purposes. "At the moment we are at the beginning of the road for enrichment in the laboratory. Any new idea for negotiations need to go from this point," said Mottaki.

Well, it looks like the Iranians have gotten M. Douste-Blazy's message, loud and clear.

* Michèle Alliot-Marie, Minister of Defence and the dimmest bulb in the dark Chirac marquee™. M. Douste-Blazy is the alternate dark bulb.

PFFT (What is this?): Unmistakable message 5 | Rayonnement français 0

Did anyone notice who M. le Ministre omitted from his big "international community"?

Greece? Spain? Oh, yeah, right, that country. The US.

Also of note, while this is going on we see that since 2001, France's active force in NATO has dropped from 294,430 to 259,050.

The US NATO forces have gone from 1,365,000 to 1,422,000.