When Ségo was voted the Socialist presidential nominee by the militants last November the public immediately embraced her fairy tale candidacy. Bouncy, all smiles -- and most especially a woman -- she was France's new hope. And off she went to battle Sarko, who, everyone agreed, lacked Ségo's adorable wardrobe and her bikinitude.

Alas, soon -- on the very heels of her bright beginning -- things started going badly. And worse, they continue going badly (and here and here and here and here and here, to link but a few disasters).

Last month Sarko was voted the presidential nominee of L'UMP and now all the name-calling and tricks has been elevated to official campaigning, which is to say no-holds-barred politics.

SHE-COCK VS. HE-COCK
It Ain't Beanbag
[Cologne carnaval photo credit: Figaro: Pfeil/AP]

Which brings us to the chart below, where the candidates appear dead even. There are 67 days to go before the first round of voting. Campaigns finish out on their momentum. Sarko's movement is up. Ségo's down.

QUESTION:

"Can you tell me if you wish to see this person playing a major role in the months and years ahead?"

CONVERGENCE
Up Is Better

ROYAL STILL SLIDING IN THE POLLS

PARIS, Feb 13, 2007 (AFP) - An Ifop poll conducted for Paris Match magazine a day after her policy launch Sunday gave Royal 46 percent of votes in a run-off against the right-wing contender Nicolas Sarkozy, who would garner 54 percent.

... After entering the race in a strong position, Royal has lost the edge to Sarkozy, who has been leading in all opinion polls conducted since his nomination as the governing party's candidate on January 14.

The poll released Monday showed that Sarkozy would get 33.5 percent of votes in the first round of voting in April, up 2.5 points from the previous Ifop survey, on January 25-26. Royal would get 26 percent in the first round, down from 27.5 percent, according to the poll.

If our theory holds, Ségo may have to resort to appearances in her bikini to recapture her campaign's earlier magic.

It is apparent that she will not win on bold or brilliant new policy.

PFFT (What is this?): Fairy tale campaign absent the fairy magic 3¾ | Rayonnement français 0