BAROMÈTRE PRÉSIDENTIEL - VAGUE 18
[PRESIDENTIAL BAROMETER - WAVE 18]

April 6, 2007 (TNS-Sofres/Unilog) - 78% (-3) of the 1,000 people interviewed in a recent French poll confirm their interest in the presidential election, compared to 22% (+3) who remain indifferent. In the first round of elections 28% (-2) of the people questioned intend to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy whereas 23.5% (-3.5) will elect Ségolène Royal, 20% (+2) for François Bayrou. Moving towards the second round, 54% (+2) planned to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy and 46% (-2) for Ségolène Royal.

NEARLY HALF OF FRENCH VOTERS UNDECIDED

PARIS April 9, 2007 (Reuters) - Right-wing presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy has extended his lead over his main rival, Socialist Segolene Royal, but a poll on Sunday showed nearly half of French voters were undecided over who to back.

With just two weeks to the first round of the presidential election, the CSA poll for Le Parisien newspaper said 42 percent were unsure which way to vote.

... Sensing the election is wide open, the third and fourth placed candidates have stepped up attacks on the poll leaders. ... [François] Bayrou says he will be in the second round and polls show he would beat Sarkozy if they are both in the May 6 runoff. ... [Jean-Marie Le Pen] says a chunk of the undecided vote is his because people are embarrassed to tell pollsters they back the far-right.

"A large part of my voters are hidden among the people who say they will vote for Nicolas Sarkozy," Le Pen said on TV5 on Sunday evening.

It is hard to believe that 42% of the electorate is truly undecided. Pave suggests that after the escroc/facho non-election of 2002 the French are enjoying this year's horse race and are not in any hurry to do any candidate the favor of whipping a campaign along. Why would they? The longer they hold out the more fabulous the prizes offered by the candidates: Economic moralization! Less capitalism! More candy! Less candy! More taxes! Less taxes! Identity! Rupture! Revolution! People power! Unity!

FRANCE’S BAYROU CLAIMS VICTIM OF POLL DISTORTION

PARIS April 4, 2007 (Gulf Times) - French centrist Francois Bayrou, fighting to revive his flagging presidential ambitions, accused pollsters yesterday of deliberately underestimating his ratings and said he was convinced he could still win the election.

... France’s pollsters say they always have to adjust their raw data to take into account that voters have historically been reluctant to admit they back Le Pen, who secured a shock second place in the 2002 election.

Bayrou told reporters that pollsters tended to take more votes away from his score to compensate for the Le Pen factor.

“I don’t understand why all the voters who say they want me to be elected are less worthy of respect than those who vote for the others,” he said, predicting an upset on the April 22 first round vote. “In all presidential elections, the leading candidates have all suffered an erosion (of support) in the final three weeks.”

If M. Bayrou is correct then the pollsters are clearly wrong. If the pollsters believe their canvassed numbers unreliable, they do not become more reliable with guesswork. If there is a "Le Pen" distortion, then it should be quantified in a poll's margin of error, a published number applicable to all results. M. Bayrou is right to complain about cooked numbers.

PFFT (What is this?): Voters play coy 3 | Election chugging along 3 | Rayonnement français 0