UPDATE: Below as of 17:54 CEST, around noon EDT here.

PRÉSIDENTIELLE - 1ÈRE ESTIMATIONS :
SARKOZY 26.5 % - ROYAL 26 %
PARIS 22 avril 2007 (Romandie.com)

[Hat tip: Carine]

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According to communiqués from the ministère de l'Intérieur reported by TNS Sofres, voter turnout in the first round as of noon CEST* was 31.2%, topping voter turnout in the first round at this hour in the last four presidential elections (1981, 25.93%; 1988, 27.09%; 1995, 22.52%; 2002, 21.6%) and the 2005 constitutional referendum (25.08%).

Our guess is that high turnout does not favor any of the little candidates. And not Sarko. There is a huge reservoir of resentment toward the party in power, more than any protesting distinctions or call for "rupture" or commisseration with "suffering France" can smooth down.

So the le vote utile will break for the opposition, which means Ségo. Unlike so many who think the French electorate full of surprises, we do not think that the French will surprise much. M. Le Pen has run a confused and confusing campaign and will not have a repeat of his 2002 mischief. M. Le Pen will throw in with Sarko. M. Bayrou will fade and his support will redistribute itself between the second round candidates. The little candidates' supporters will scurry behind the nearest available match -- and the long anticipated head-to-head between Sarko and Ségo will commence. We've sensed nothing in the national mood that would turn France over to Communists, altermondialistes, or the party of weekend camping.

Tomorrow at this time the results will look embarrassingly obvious and much of the swim that has played in the press for the past several weeks, well, people will wonder, what was that all about?

Or we could be completely wrong.

* CEST = Central European Summer Time

PFFT (What is this?): France votes 4 | France surprises ¾ | Rayonnement français 0