BAROMÈTRE PRÉSIDENTIEL - VAGUE 21
[PRESIDENTIAL BAROMETER - WAVE 21]

April 20, 2007 (TNS-Sofres/Unilog) - 81% (=, unchanged) of the 1,000 people interviewed in a recent French poll confirm their interest in the presidential election, compared to 19% (=) who remain indifferent. In the first round of elections 28% (-0.5) of the people questioned intend to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy where as 24% (-1) will elect Ségolène Royal, 19.5% (+0.5) for François Bayrou. Moving towards the second round, 53% (+2) planned to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy and 47% (-2) for Ségolène Royal.

Two days out and we are still reading headlines like this:

A THIRD OF FRENCH VOTERS YET TO DECIDE

April 20, 2007 (EuroNews) - The first round of France's presidential election may be on Sunday but a significant proportion of the country's 44.5 million voters appear far from ready to embrace any specific candidate.

... As the hustings fall quiet in the final hours before the first round vote, a third of the electorate is still undecided and that could prove to be an advantage for the candidates who are trailing the front-runners in the polls.

Indeed. With the undecided vote greater than any one candidate's canvassed vote, the 1er tour could turn and twist and surprise everyone. But we doubt it.

Our guess is that the undecided are undecided among the top three candidates, with perhaps M. Le Pen making good his claim to surprise. But we doubt M. Le Pen has the juju.

We also doubt anyone is undecided about a vote for Philippe de Villiers, Frédéric Nihous, Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller, Marie-George Buffet, Gérard Schivardi, José Bové, and Dominique Voynet.* These candidates negligible numbers and microscopic movements in the polls week-to-week suggests anyone voting them decided long ago.

What for instance could be the dynamic so powerful as to jump the "Little Red Postman" 27 points from 3.5% to take over the lead, yet so subtle that it has gone wholly undetected by campaigners, pundits and voters -- and mystics -- alike?

The interesting question is, two days out, why is a third of the French vote still undecided -- unclear or guarded -- about its vote? Four possibilities present themselves: 1) The political spread between candidates is negligible; 2) The choices are odious; 3) This undecided third does not intend to decide, that is, to show at the polls; 4) This undecided has decided but is too afraid or too ashamed to admit to its vote. One and two are weak.

Our guess is that if the undecided vote, they will not much disturb the standings of the decided vote.

* Who are these folk? See our earlier scorecard post.

PFFT (What is this?): French surprise 2½ | Rayonnement français 0