14 jours avant le 2e tour
When the obvious became obvious -- that, other than a record turnout, the 1er tour outcomes were fairly conventional and had been plainly evident since January -- the twitchy anxious French press had a brief respite from the terrible uncertainty of balloting. Ah, ever so brief.
The press is once again aflutter because, we are informed, the outcome of the 2e tour isn't known! Several professional journalists have said privately that they are not confident reporting the 2e tour outcome before the vote, putting the electorate to the trouble of once again voting. Ah, the humanity! The dubiety!
FINAL RESULTS BY CANDIDATE
April 23, 2007 (20 Minutes)
Nicolas Sarkozy
31.18%
Ségolène Royal
25.87%
François Bayrou
18.57%
Jean-Marie Le Pen
10.44%
Olivier Besancenot
4.08%
Philippe de Villiers
2.23%
Marie-George Buffet
1.93%
Dominique Voynet
1.57%
Arlette Laguiller
1.33%
José Bové
1.32%
Frédéric Nihous
1.15%
Gérard Schivardi
0.34%
Source: 20 Minutes / WAG Digital-Reuters
Sarko finished stronger than the polls going in. No major poll had him over 30%, several had him 2-4 points below that. Ségo finished weaker than going in, when she was put at around 28%, dead even in many polls. To say that M. Bayrou finished strong is not to say much. M. Bayrou needed to finish stronger. M. Le Pen is confirmed as a spent force. His "surprise" never even threatened to materialize; his fablous support in the banlieues didn't show. The Communists collectively pulled 7.68% (excludes M. Bové). The left collectively pulled 36.44% (includes M. Bové and the Greens); the right 45% (excludes M. Bayrou); include M. Bayrou, the right jumps to 63.57%.
Assuming the 1er tour numbers are proportionally partisan in the 2e tour, Ségo will have to draw over 70% of the UDF (scil., M. Bayrou) vote to beat Sarko. We doubt that she can. She is going into the 2e tour weaker than predicted in the 1er tour. She is not surging, she is bobbing.
The left meanwhile has gotten busy telegraphing its desperation with a poorly advised "Tout sauf Sarkozy" ("TSF", "Anyone But Sarkozy") campaign. The idea is to rally the left supporters of the little candidates around the 2e tour underdog. The message is, Hey, your dog didn't make it, but now you can join us and put down that big dog, Sarko! This gets the left some play in the press but it tends to depress the left vote not rally it.
Why? First, because the TSF vote is premised on -- and thus advertises -- Sarko's superior position. At no time in the 1er tour did "Tout sauf Schivardi" or "Tout sauf Nihous" movements spring up. Second, because the TSF vote has already been frustrated. Their dog has been eliminated. Asking them to now compromise their beautiful hope-against-hope vote just depresses them more. Third, the French left is hardly homogenous, and for many voting Ségo -- even on instruction from "good comrade central" -- is as odious as was voting Jack in 2002. Probably more so, as Sarko is not Le Pen and Ségo is not the wounded M. Jospin. Fourth, many in Ségo's own party don't like her, have little to no confidence in her, and/or believe she will betray the party. So if you are a Trotskyite, where's the attraction?
PFFT (What is this?): Dubiety, is there no surcease? 5 | Rayonnement français 0
