1 jour avant le 2e tour

Big debate. Big deal. The run-up was agonzing. Here for example is what the Guardian promised.

FRENCH TV DEBATE PROMISES SPARKS
PARIS May 1, 2007 (Guardian/AP)

And here is its weak follow-on.

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL RIVALS DEBATE
PARIS May 3, 2007 (Guardian/AP)

There were, in fact, sparks, but little debate.

FRENCH CANDIDATES STICK TO THEIR SCRIPTS
IN A HEATED DEBATE
PARIS May 2, 2007 (IHT)

Let Pave begin by applauding the French debate format where the candidates directly address each other. This is superior to the American "talk to the hand" format where a moderator asks questions that go nowhere and candidates recite compilations of "best of the hustings".

That said, the 2e tour debate was quite a slog, some 2+ hours, with the transcript published by Le Monde running some 18 pages. A mixed press politely reported there was no decisive winner -- or simply published favorable articles in line with editorial predilections. Each campaign (here and here*) announced its candidate the winner.

For some there was no debate at all, literally. Le Monde commissioned Jonathan Littell to watch the debate with the sound off. Without all the distracting polemics, Mr. Littell easily decided the vainqueur incontestable.

From what we saw of the debate, if there was no clear winner, there certainly was a clear loser. Ségo.

Having campaigned as the candidate with a vagina,** for Wednesday's debate Ségo strapped on a novelty set of cojones. Alas, the little gentlemen did not serve her well. Ségo looked uncomfortable, fidgeted, and sputtered and flared angrily throughout the debate. The intended effect was to look tough and scrappy...

WHO'S AFRAID OF SARKOZY? "NOT ME," SAYS ROYAL
PARIS April 30, 2007 (Reuters)

...the result looked, by turns, discomposed, petulant, histrionic, silly. Phony. But worst of all, when her performance did not hint at desperation, it appeared straight out desperate.

Sarko took the opposite tact. He presented himself as a placid marshmallow, taking blow after blow but retaining his general shape. Occasionally he hardened. He criticized Ségo's poor comportment and hinted that beneath his soft spongy exterior there were wounded feelings.

Ségo went into the debate trailing Sarko by 4+ points. M. Le Pen was thought to give Ségo a boost by explicitly denying Sarko his support the day before the presidential debate (we disagreed). M. Bayrou, who debated Ségo last Saturday, explicitly ruled out voting for Sarko the day after the presidential debate, thus implicitly endorsing Ségo. Yet with these major props to her campaign, with favorable headlines and editorial endorsements, Ségo immediately lost ground following the debate.

OPINIONWAY: SARKOZY JUGÉ PLUS CONVAINCANT
PAR 53% DES SONDÉS
[OPINIONWAY: SARKOZY CONSIDERED TO BE MORE CONVINCING
BY 53% OF RESPONDENTS]

PARIS (AFP) - Nicolas Sarkozy a été jugé plus convaincant que Ségolène Royal lors de leur débat radio-télévisé de mercredi soir, selon un sondage Opinionway pour le Figaro et LCI rendu public jeudi. 53% des personnes interrogées ont jugé le candidat UMP "plus convaincant", contre 31% pour la candidate PS et 16% qui répondent ni l'un ni l'autre ou ne se prononcent pas.

Les directeurs de campagne de Ségolène Royal ont dénoncé dès sa publication "la fiabilité" de cette enquête, y voyant des "manoeuvres de commande".

[Nicolas Sarkozy was considered to be more convincing than Ségolène Royal in their broadcast debate on Wednesday evening, according to an Opinionway survey for Figaro and LCI made public Thursday. Fifty-three percent of the people surveyed considered the UMP candidate "more convincing", against 31% for the candidate PS, and 16% who answered neither.

Upon its publication, the directors of the Ségolène Royal campaign denounced "the reliability" of the survey, seeing "manipulation" at work.]

[Hat tip: ¡No Pasarán!]

SARKOZY INCREASES LEAD AFTER TV DEBATE: POLLS
PARIS May 4, 2007 (AFP)

ALL POLLS POINT TO SARKOZY WIN IN FRANCE
May 5, 2007 (Angus Reid)

She now trails by as much as 10 points in the polls.

We invite you to judge for yourself. The debate in its entirety can be viewed at TF1 in 2 segments (here and here). For non-francophonies, here is a segment with English over-dub (Hat tip to reader Ricky R). To compare the change in styles, see this earlier debate from January.

* Arnaud Montebourg explose de rire : "C'est le retour de Kill Bill !" (Le Monde, op. cit.)

** Ironically, this tactic has not resonated with women voters, whose vaginas have not proved naturally empathic. Also see our earlier posts, here and here.

PFFT (What is this?): Political theater 4 | Political box office (Ségo) ½ | Political box office (Sarko) 3 | Rayonnement français ¾